Walmart In Final Stages Of Flipkart Deal, Amazon Left In The Cold

Finally, the long-drawn international Walmart-Amazon battle is going to extend to Indian grounds. With US retail giant Walmart on the brink of acquiring Flipkart, speculation in the media is now merging to a consensus on finalisation of the deal. According to a recent Forbes report, the Walmart-Flipkart deal has been settled at $15 Bn, wherein Walmart will acquire a majority stake of 75% in Flipkart along with Google’s parent company, Alphabet. Google will reportedly invest $3 Bn in the Walmart-Flipkart deal and will receive 15% of the total acquired stake in Flipkart.

The deal will value Flipkart anywhere between $20-$22 Bn. However, Sanchit Vir Gogia, chief analyst, founder and CEO of Greyhound Research, estimated the deal to be in the range of $12-14 Bn with an equity of 70-73%, as shared in an exclusive interaction with Inc42.

Sanchit believes that Walmart’s existing Cash & Carry store business in India can be expected to continue as a separate unit and not be mixed up with the business and ongoing affairs of its ecommerce business.

“It’s critical to note that Walmart or any other entity of its type cannot use acquisitions in India as a backdoor to establishing a retail presence in the country — the laws of the land are clear and we see no reason for a company like Walmart or the like to violate them,” he emphasised.

“We are of the view that Walmart is more of a logistics and a supply chain company than a retailer. In essence, if Walmart is compared to a car, and its retail presence is the steering wheel, the real engine and the chassis are its supply chain and logistics functions. With the proposed acquisition of Flipkart, the company will be able to extend this expertise to managing physical goods in the digital world — a strength that Flipkart seriously lacks which its rival Amazon has,” said Sanchit.

Further, it must be noted is that Walmart also brings to the table a deep understanding of using an existing network of retail infrastructure and adding technology to it to offer real-time status on stocks. This, again, will come in handy for Flipkart in its journey of onboarding existing kirana stores to stock and supply products.

“Given this strength, we can well expect a significant portion of the proposed investment by Walmart — to the tune of $12-15 Bn — to be directed towards adding supply chain strengths to Flipkart. This, we believe, will act as a key differentiator from Amazon, which is increasingly adding muscle to its India business,” he added.

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Additional Insights (over and above the sources mentioned above) from Sanchit Vir Gogia of Greyhound Research:

  • Per our findings at Greyhound Research, Walmart’s existing Cash & Carry store business in India can be expected to continue as a separate business unit and not mixed with the business and ongoing affairs of it’s ecommerce business.
  • It’s critical to note that Walmart or any other entity of its type cannot use acquisitions in India as a backdoor to establishing a retail presence in the country – the laws of the land are clear and we see no reason for a company like Walmart or the like to violate them.
  • Having said that, we expect Walmart to be in this journey with Flipkart (if the deal does goes through) for the long haul and the one where both parties join hands to bring respective expertise. To give context – Walmart has been sourcing directly from farmers; has great depth in supply chain management warehousing operations – solid pluses for Flipkart.
  • We can also expect this coming together to bring value to kirana stores – the key will be to use the existing network and infrastructure of kirana stores to better stock and deliver products – a solid differentiation from others in the game.
  • Separately, per our estimates, the deal is expected to be in the range of USD 12-14 Bn with a equity of 70-73%.
  • Lastly, the involvement Alphabet (if they do agree to participate) will bring solid expertise and people networks needed to make Flipkart a true global phenomenon and make it a backbone for Walmart’s success in the global ecommerce market.
  • At Greyhound Research we are of the view that Walmart is more of a logistics and a supply chain company than being a retailer. At the core of their operations, Walmart has achieved excellence when it comes to moving and managing physical goods across the globe in as many efficient ways as possible.
  • With the proposed acquisition of Flipkart, the company will be able to extend this expertise to managing physical goods in the digital world – a strength that Flipkart seriously lacks. To put this in context – supply chain is also the strength of Amazon, Flipkart’s ace competition. This strength, we at Greyhound Research believe, is a significant differentiator in a marketplace dominated by thin margins and worsened by steep discounting policies.
  • What must be noted is that Walmart also brings to the table a deep and solid understanding of using network of existing retail infrastructure and adding technology to it to offer real-time status on stocks – again, this will come handy for Flipkart in it’s journey of onboarding existing kirana stores as its feet on the street to stock and supply products.
  • Given this strength, we can well expect significant portion of the proposed investment by Walmart – in-tune of USD 12-15 Bn per Greyhound Research estimates – to be directed towards adding supply chain strengths to Flipkart. This, we believe, will act as a key differentiator against Amazon who is increasingly adding muscle to it’s India business.
  • In essence, if Walmart is compared to a car, while the steering is it’s retail presence, the real engine and the chassis is its supply chain and logistics functions.

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Analyst:

Sanchit Vir Gogia: Sanchit is the Chief Analyst, Founder & CEO of Greyhound Research, an award-winning global research & advisory firm. To read more about him, click here.

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