Tariff Shock: Why Infosys’s Guidance Miss Signals a Crisis in Indian IT

Reading Time: 3 minutes

Prefer watching instead of reading? Watch the video here. Prefer reading instead? Scroll down for the full text. Prefer listening instead? Scroll up for the audio player.

P.S. The video and audio are in sync, so you can switch between them or control playback as needed. Enjoy Greyhound Standpoint insights in the format that suits you best. Join the conversation on social media using #GreyhoundStandpoint.

---

India’s second-largest software exporter Infosys expects the global tariff war to further hamper growth, its chief executive said on Thursday, after the company missed revenue guidance for the fiscal year ended in March.

“The proposed Trump-era tariff resurgence is not just a short-term disruption—it’s a structural threat to Indian IT’s commercial models and cross-border delivery economics,” said Sanchit Vir Gogia, chief executive at technology consultancy Greyhound Research.

“While the sector showed initial signs of recovery in late FY25 (fiscal year ending March 2025), this latest development introduces a fresh layer of uncertainty that could derail client decision-making and stall discretionary spend cycles,” he added.

As quoted in Nikkei Asia, in an article authored by Sayan Chakraborty published on April 17, 2025.

Additional comments by Greyhound Research analyst:

Tariff Shock: Structural, Not Symbolic, For Indian IT Firms

Greyhound Flashpoint – Tariff rhetoric may seem like political theatre, but its enterprise impact is far from symbolic. According to Greyhound CIO Pulse 2025, 59% of U.S.-based Fortune 1000 CIOs are now proactively reassessing offshore IT vendor exposure due to regulatory unpredictability. At Greyhound Research, we believe the real risk is not immediate revenue loss, but long-term disruption to delivery models, pricing logic, and client confidence in Indian IT firms’ global playbooks.

Greyhound Standpoint – According to Greyhound Research, the proposed Trump-era tariff resurgence presents a structural challenge to the commercial foundations of Indian IT services. Unlike past cycles, today’s Indian vendors are deeply woven into strategic U.S. transformation projects across AI, cloud, and cybersecurity. Even if services escape formal tariff inclusion, contract scopes, delivery timelines, and vendor selection criteria are already under revision, especially in sectors like BFSI, healthcare, and defence where localisation mandates are tightening.

Greyhound Pulse Insights – The Greyhound CIO Pulse 2025 confirms that 61% of U.S. technology leaders are now factoring geopolitical variables into procurement cycles—up from 34% in 2023. A further 43% cite policy volatility as their top reason for deferring Q1 FY26 purchasing decisions, with contract localisation scoring higher than pricing for the first time. It’s a clear shift from efficiency-driven buying to resilience-based planning.

Greyhound Fieldnotes – Per a recent Greyhound Fieldnote from an enterprise risk audit session with a leading U.S. healthcare payer, the CFO instructed IT to limit all offshore vendor exposure beyond a 12-month horizon. This wasn’t triggered by pricing, but by boardroom anxiety over compliance shifts mid-contract. Despite a decade-long partnership with an Indian Tier-1 firm, the deal is now under renegotiation with local delivery fallback clauses. The vendor’s investment in U.S. delivery centres was not seen as enough of a hedge.

Copyright Policy. All content contained on the Greyhound Research website is protected by copyright law and may not be reproduced, distributed, transmitted, displayed, published, or broadcast without the prior written permission of Greyhound Research or, in the case of third-party materials, the prior written consent of the copyright owner of that content. You may not alter, delete, obscure, or conceal any trademark, copyright, or other notice appearing in any Greyhound Research content. We request our readers not to copy Greyhound Research content and not republish or redistribute them (in whole or partially) via emails or republishing them in any media, including websites, newsletters, or intranets. We understand that you may want to share this content with others, so we’ve added tools under each content piece that allow you to share the content. If you have any questions, please get in touch with our Community Relations Team at connect@thofgr.com.